How to evaluate a Polymarket trader

Start with positions, not a leaderboard rank

Two wallets with similar profit can have very different risk. One may have earned across many unrelated markets; another may depend on one large winning event. Rankings are useful for finding candidates, not for deciding whom to copy.

This page describes an evaluation method, not results from a Polyfund dataset, backtest, or study. We do not claim a measured success rate here.

Five checks for a public wallet

Choose the same observation window for each wallet. Then inspect both resolved trades and risk still open.

• Closed trades: how many independent outcomes produced the result.
• Drawdown: how much value fell before or between gains.
• Concentration: exposure to one event, topic, or correlated set of markets.
• Entry and exit prices: whether a similar trade is still possible at current prices.
• Open positions: unresolved outcomes that can change the record.

What public history cannot show

One public wallet does not show a person's other accounts, hedges, or reasoning. A trader may change behavior after attracting followers. Checking the record helps you understand past trades; it cannot predict the next one or guarantee the same fill when copying.